张寓老师的论文被 Economics Letters 接受发表

张寓老师撰写的学术论文“Subjective beliefs and ambiguity aversion”于2022年1月被Economics Letters接受发表。

论文摘要

This study finds a significant relationship between one’s subjective beliefs on a natural event and her degree of ambiguity aversion. By using a bins-and-balls experiment to elicit the entire subjective prior distribution of stock price growth next year, and an Ellsberg-urn experiment to elicit the degree of ambiguity aversion, we find that individuals exhibiting a higher degree of ambiguity aversion: (1) have lower expectations on future stock price growth rates; and (2) assign higher subjective probabilities on states representing negative growth, but lower subjective probabilities on states representing positive growth. These results thus have an important implication that studies testing the effect of ambiguity aversion on certain economic and financial behaviors are suggested to control subjective beliefs. Otherwise, the effect of ambiguity aversion may be overestimated.

作者介绍

张寓，对外经济贸易大学风险管理与保险学系讲师（链接）